How a 19th-Century Tragedy Shaped Modern Risk Management
- Patrick Hurley
- May 9
- 3 min read
A Reflection on Negligence, Risk, Reform, Leadership & Accountability
On May 31, 1889, the quiet town of Johnstown, Pennsylvania, was destroyed when the South Fork Dam collapsed after days of heavy rain, unleashing a torrent of water that devastated the valley below. The statistics are staggering:
20 million tons of water surged downstream
2,209 people lost their lives
1,600 homes were destroyed
4 square miles of downtown Johnstown were leveled
$17 million in damages (equivalent to over $550 million today)
This week, I visited the site of the former South Fork Dam. The remains are beautiful and peaceful, as if to honor all those who perished. Yet, they tell a haunting story. The entire center section of the dam is missing, and the spillway—still visible—is higher than the center, a fatal post-construction modification that contributed directly to the disaster.
On the day the dam failed, with no way to lower water levels due to another previous modification and spillways rendered ineffective, the center section eroded first. The damn breached sending 20,000,000 tons (3,600,000,000 gallons) of water rushing 14-miles toward Johnstown, crushing everything in its path.
A Legal System Not Ready for an Industrialized Country
The South Fork Fishing and Hunting Club, a private retreat for elite industrialists including Andrew Carnegie and Henry Clay Frick, owned the dam initially built by the state of Pennsylvania to service the canal system servicing the Pittsburgh area. After it was rendered obsolete by advances in rail transportation, it was sold, eventually ending up in private hands. The club had made structural changes, such as lowering the dam and removing discharge pipes, without proper engineering oversight. Yet, when lawsuits followed the flood, courts ruled it an "Act of God." No one was held legally responsible.
At the time, American tort law lacked the tools to address such negligence. There was no strict liability for inherently dangerous activities, and the concepts of duty of care and foreseeable risk were still evolving. Victims had no legal recourse.
What If It Happened Today?
Under today's legal standards, the outcome would likely be very different. Modern tort law includes:
Negligence: Failure to act with reasonable care
Strict liability: Responsibility for damages regardless of intent or negligence
Duty of care: The obligation to avoid acts or omissions that could foreseeably harm others
Had these principles been in place in 1889, the South Fork Fishing and Hunting Club would likely have been liable for failing to maintain the dam and for modifying it in ways that compromised its integrity, and its failure was inevitable.
The Role of Modern Risk Management
Beyond legal accountability, the Johnstown Flood is a case study in the importance of risk management. Today, infrastructure and construction projects are, or should be, governed by rigorous safety protocols, including:
Risk assessments to identify and mitigate potential safety and security hazards
Modeling to simulate extreme events, including weather, natural, and man-made disasters
Regular inspections and maintenance schedules
Emergency action plans to protect downstream communities
Transparent reporting and stakeholder engagement
These practices are not just bureaucratic checkboxes—they are life-saving measures. The Johnstown tragedy helped catalyze the development of these standards and the supporting liability law.
A Call to Action: Safety Is Everyone's Responsibility
The ruins of the South Fork Dam stand as a stark reminder that when safety is ignored, tragedy follows. Whether you're a policymaker, engineer, business leader, or citizen, you have a role in demanding accountability and supporting risk-aware decision-making from the start.
Business leaders and public officials cannot wait for disaster to drive change. They can't hide behind a veil of uncertain foreseeability or apparent favorable odds that nothing will happen. Nor can they let physical safety and security be an afterthought or deemed an annoying or even unnecessary expense.
All leaders must advocate for safety, security, transparency, responsibility, and accountability before a tragedy or disaster occurs.
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